What Oil Price? In the
Get Prepared: So investors, get ready for the biggest oil price hike you have ever seen and please remember, you heard it hear first. Our aim is to provide the very best insights to our customers this will allow you to position your property portfolios to make sure that when Peak Oil arrives (if it has not already arrived), you will benefit rather than suffer.
As oil prices rise, inflation will rise, unemployment will likely increase, GDP growth will drop and asset prices will come under pressure. The countries with the weakest economies with most negative exposure to high oil prices will suffer the most the net losers we call them. The net winners will be the oil exporting nations, and strongest growing manufacturing economies.
We assumed that oil price would rise from $70 / bbl in early August 2007, then by 30% per annum until 2011 until they reached $200 bbl / bbl - demand would then drop and oil prices would rise by a further 15% then 10% per annum until 2015. This scenario assumes
Winners and Losers: The key is a MASSIVE transfer of wealth from the developed non oil exporting nations to the developing oil exporting nations. The biggest wealth winners are:
The biggest wealth losers are:
The Real Losers: However, the biggest overall losers will be countries not mentioned in these charts the forgotten about poor developing countries with no oil production, many in
These countries will be knocked with massive new oil import bills they would likely have constant fuel shortages, food distribution problems, water shortages, blackouts and famine may become widespread. The oil producing & exporting nations would need to help them they simply would not be able to afford the high oil prices and would not have any technology substitutes.
Our Unique Analysis: For an overview, please look at the below graphs. We have spent the last year modeling each countrys oil production (forecast) and oil consumption (forecast). We then obtained the net oil import or export. We then multiplied this by the predicted oil price. This equals the net oil revenue deficit or surplus per country. All key countries are included check out where you live!
$ Trillions of Wealth Transferred every Year: As you can see, the numbers are mind boggling. If our predictions are true which we believe they will turn out to be both
Please understand, energy has been far too cheap for far too long. People traveling 5000 km for a weekend holiday flight from
As for Climate Change (ref; we had fears of an Ice Age and Nuclear Winters in the 1970s and 1980s) Peak Oil will have far wider implications for mankind, economic prosperity and the environment. It might lead to lower emissions eventually as people finally forced to switch from oil to renewable and more efficient forms of transport. You definitely need to consider this in your investment strategies central city is better than 6 miles drive or suburbia. Oil exporting country is better than oil importing. Follow the oil revenue money the emerging winners will likely be:
Some examples of booming oil towns and cities (areas exposed to the oil business) are:
In these oil boom towns, GDP will rise in the range 5-15% per annum would be expected. However, in the losing countries, GDP rises of 0-2% would be considered high, with many going into reverse and seeing annual house price deflation for many years at say 0 to -2% per annum. Example would be
Our charts are truly unique we have the back-up data for every country to support our predictions.
If you have any comments on the analysis, predictions or insights, please contact us on firstname.lastname@example.org