Kjell Aleklett, professor of Physics at Uppsala University and president of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, has warned that the global financial crisis and resultant drop in oil demand does not mean that we can go on with ‘business and usual’ and the imminent threat of peak oil must be addressed now.

 

Crude oil is the basis for different forms of transport fuel. These forms (fractions refined from crude oil) are divided between petrol (23.8%), aviation fuel (6.3%), diesel (33.1%) and bunker oil (16.1%). The remaining products from crude oil are used for other purposes.

 

“The basis for globalisation is global transport and Australia’s future is dependent upon this,” professor Aleklett said. “The future that the aviation industry project is ‘business and usual’ with growth of 5% per year. What happens when ‘business and usual’ is not an option?

 

“Shipping uses primarily bunker oil but more and more refineries are now converting this fraction to increase production of diesel. What will happen to shipping without ‘business and usual’ as an option?

 

“When future energy scenarios are discussed, a ‘business as usual’ scenario is always included,” he said. “The most well known ‘business as usual’ scenarios are those delivered by the International Energy Agency, IEA, in its yearly publication World Energy Outlook, and those that form the foundation of the IPCC’s climate scenarios.

 

“The nations of the world are now gathering to make decisions to reduce global emissions of carbon dioxide,” professor Aleklett said. “Since 2004, CO2 emissions from oil have levelled off and peak oil means that these will soon decrease, regardless of political decisions. Natural gas will also reach a production maximum and its emissions will decline. What will happen with coal in the future? It is time to discuss the future of the climate without ‘business as usual’ as an option.”