Kjell Aleklett, a Swedish physics professor and president of ASPO, the main peak oil association, is taking on the IEA over future liquid hydrocarbon supply.
Platts reports Aleklett will present a paper for peer review and inclusion in the journal Energy Policy that says the IEA’s projections of liquid output of 101.5m barrels per day by 2030 is too high. He puts the number at 75m bpd.
The difference between the IEA and Aleklett’s work is fairly straightforward. Aleklett adopts what he calls a “parameter” in determining the rate of depletion in fields that have yet to be developed or fields yet to be discovered, two key elements in the IEA’s projections.
(As another data point, the US Energy Information Agency, which launched its annual International Energy Outlook report this week, projects 107m barrels per day of liquids production in 2030, including 12m from unconventional sources).
Platts points out Aleklett is a physicist, not a geologist. Either way, we await the peer review outcome with interest.