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Energy Insights: Energy News: World oil reserves fall for first time in decade

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World oil reserves fall for first time in decade


21-06-2009

 

 
In its annual statistical review of world energy, BP said proved oil reserves fell by three billion barrels to 1.258 trillion barrels by the end of 2008 from a revised 1.261 trillion at the end of 2007.

In its annual statistical review of world energy, BP said proved oil reserves fell by three billion barrels to 1.258 trillion barrels by the end of 2008 from a revised 1.261 trillion at the end of 2007.

Photograph by: Getty Images, Getty Images

CALGARY -- World oil reserves — including Canada’s oil sands under active development — fell last year for the first time since 1998, BP PLC said Wednesday, supporting a trend of bullish news that sent oil prices to a seven-month high.

In its annual statistical review of world energy, BP said proved oil reserves fell by three billion barrels to 1.258 trillion barrels by the end of 2008 from a revised 1.261 trillion at the end of 2007. Declines in countries including Russia, Norway and China offset increases in Vietnam, India and Egypt.

“Our data confirms the world has enough proved reserves of oil, natural gas and coal to meet the world’s needs for decades to come,” BP chief executive Tony Hayward said in an introduction to the review. “The challenges the world faces in growing supplies to meet future demand are not below ground, they are above ground. They are human, not geological.”

Oil companies are challenged to replace the reserves they produce as some countries nationalize their oil industries, others keep many areas off limits.

The BP review found global oil consumption declined by 0.6% last year, or 420,000 barrels per day, to 84.45 million b/d — the first decline since 1993 and the largest decline since 1982.

OECD countries cut oil consumption by 1.5 million barrels a day, or 3.2%, led by a 6.4% decline or 1.3 million barrels in the U.S., but consumption outside the OECD grew by 1.1 million barrels a day, BP said in the influential analysis of the world’s latest energy trends.

“Primary energy consumption growth slowed in 2008,” Mr. Hayward said. “All the net growth in energy consumption came from the rapidly industrializing non-OECD economies, with China alone accounting for nearly three-quarters of global growth.”

Crude prices rose US$1.32 a barrel in New York Wednesday, to US$71.33 a barrel, on an unexpected drop in U.S. inventories. Oil prices have risen 60% since the beginning of the year.

Alexei Miller, the CEO of Russia’s OAO Gazprom, said oil’s gains show the rally that was interrupted by the financial crisis is resuming. In a speech in Italy, he said spikes above US$250 per barrel by 2012 are “realistic” due to a coming supply/demand imbalance.

Investment in the global oil and gas sector will fall by more than 20% this year, he said to the European Business Congress, because the financial crisis is causing producers to curtail spending for fear of price volatility. According to the BP review, Russia’s reserves fell last year to 79 billion barrels, down from 80.4 billion barrels in 2007.

“When we see that over the past weeks oil prices closed at around US$70, this is not a technical correction or accidental fluctuation but a return to a pre-crisis trend,” he said. “There are sufficient objective grounds for the oil price to rise to US$85 a barrel by year end.”

Meanwhile, BP found world oil production was 0.4% higher in 2008, or 81.82 million b/d, led by increases by OPEC producers.

“In 2008, the world was no longer supply constrained as production growth exceeded that of consumption for all fossil fuels, particularly later in the year,” Mr. Hayward said.

Supplies from Canada declined 2% to 3.2 million b/d. Supplies produced in the U.S. were off 1.8%, to 6.7 million b/d.

Oil and gasoline prices rose Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Department said stockpiles of oil dropped 4.38 million barrels, to 361.6 million in the week ended June 5.

BP said Canada’s proved oil reserves — including oil sands under active development — stayed the same year-over-year at 28.6 billion barrels.

Scores of oil sands projects were cancelled or delayed last year due to the oil price collapse.

Canada’s reserves are barely below those remaining in the U.S., pegged at 30.5 billion barrels.

BP included in a separate category Canada’s oil sands that are not under active development. They are estimated at 150.7 billion barrels, unchanged from 2007.

When the two categories are added up, BP estimates Canada’s total oil reserves are 179.3 billion barrels — the world’s second largest after Saudi Arabia, estimated to hold 264.1 billion barrels, slightly lower than in 2007.

The British oil major started including the oil sands in its estimate of world reserves only last year. Before that, the company took a narrower view that included only deposits under active development. BP entered the oil sands business at the end of 2007 with a joint venture with Husky Energy Inc.

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