EnergyInsights.net 
Global Populations to Accelerate Demands for Fossil Fuels, Renewable Energy 10-08-2009 8:21 pm

Today, the United States is addicted to oil consuming over 22% annually of the world’s total oil production or 19 million barrels per day. Yet the U.S. maintains only 4.5% of the world’s population, a minute fraction in comparison.

The sources of energy can be non-renewable fossil fuels including oil, coal, natural gas or renewable energy alternatives such as wind and hydro turbines, PV solar cells, and new bio-fuels such as algae, jatropha or palm oil. Regardless of where energy is derived it always equals economic power for the increasing populations worldwide.

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By 2025, the world will add another 1.4 billion people creating an energy hungry workforce of the nearly 700 million new middle class people. China alone represents 350 million with India adding 100 million to the total emerging middle class population. The rapid growth will almost triple worldwide energy demands within the next 15 years.

In order to clearly understand the urgency behind the “peak oil” issue it is useful to examine that despite trillions of dollars in debt, currently the United States still imports two-thirds of its oil at a cost that has reached over $400 billion per year. Much of it is from politically unstable regions including South America, Africa and the Middle East; countries that control 55% of world oil supplies.

Let’s also consider the fact that the majority of oil wells today have reached their “peak production”. Already we find examples, as last year Mexican oil producer Cantarell’s production fell about 9.6% every quarter. In the third-quarter, Cantarell produced less than 1 million barrels daily for the first time. As recently as 2005, the Gulf of Mexico field has been producing more than 2 million barrels per day. This declining production due to aging oil wells adds economic stress resulting in less revenue. This threatened 40% of the Mexican government budget. The implications for the U.S. are potentially significant. Mexico once provided on average 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, making it the third-biggest supplier after Canada Athabasca Oil Sands and Saudi Arabia.

It is relatively straight forward to calculate that from the existing aging oil well data the world petroleum production life cycle by 2011 will have reach “peak oil” with production declining in the following years. Therefore, a steady decline in oil output worldwide will be unable to cost effectively meet the exploding middle class population needs driving up the overall price of energy and commodities.

For example between 2002 to 2035 the major oil producing countries will have seen output declines as follows; Canada (-62%), Mexico (-92%), USA (-90%), Brazil (-64%), Venezuela (-46%), Former Soviet Union (-70%), Iran (-62%), Iraq (-45%), Kuwait (-44%), Oman (-81%), Qatar (-82%), Saudi Arabia (-48%), UAE (-65%), Nigeria (-69%), Libya (-78%), China (-63%) and Indonesia (-71%).

Where do we find enough resources to meet the world’s energy demands?

The answer lies in developing a mix of renewable energy sources including wind, solar, hydro and bio-fuels that also complements sensitive global environmental warming issues requiring less carbon based, cleaner sustainable sources. The challenge now is to manufacture and deliver alternative energy via efficient grid networks or infrastructures at cost competitive prices in comparison with oil, coal, or gas non-renewable sources.

Over the past 12 months, the ability to further develop these clean renewable technologies has attracted over $155 billion of R&D investment capital worldwide. The clean energy market has seen annual growth between 20% - 35% within niche sectors. Particularly wind and hydro turbines, PV solar cell and new bio-fuels such as African palm oil and algae are receiving significant and increasing capital.

For example, China has a $2 trillion surplus and has already launched its stimulus plans to spend $558 billion including a large portion of money targeted in renewable-energy projects. The Chinese goal is 100 GW of wind power by 2020.

China’s wind capacity is expected to grow 200% by 2012. That’s more than twice the estimates for the United States. China’s year-to-year growth average is already over 30% for the wind turbine energy sector. And to top it all off, China is working with German and U.S. manufacturers on 34 new wind farms planned between now and 2014, several are already under construction.

By 2012, China’s solar power capacity is set to increase by 255%, thus achieving 37% annualized growth average. China is already building a 100-megawatt solar power station, the world’s largest. China, U.S. and Germany are now the global leaders in thin photovoltaic solar cell manufacturing. Since 2006, China alone has already spent over $180 billion dollars to develop renewable energy sources.

What’s more is that China’s automobile ownership population is set to grow within 15 years by more than 350 million with India at 100 million new vehicles demanding greater energy. Both countries are already investing billions of dollars in hybrid electric vehicles manufacturing, smart grid networks and battery technologies.

Think about it. The world currently consumes about 85 million barrels of oil per day. By 2025, global energy demand is projected to reach the equivalent of approximately 122 million barrels a day while oil production declines and the need for food supply increases.

Recently, we have seen the acceleration of large cap traditional oil energy companies and governments investing billions of dollars in promising joint bio-fuel manufacturing ventures within sectors such as African palm oil, algae and jatropha much of this capital ending up in emerging countries. Many large cap companies are also expanding their portfolios within the solar manufacturing sector.

We also find that energy and petrochemicals used for agriculture growing rapidly. Food supply to the increasing population has significantly accelerated its impact on limited non-renewable resources. A huge sucking sound rapidly demanding more energy can already be heard from emerging middle class markets such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Former Soviet Union, Cambodia, Argentina, Singapore, and Malaysia. These emerging countries coupled with U.S. markets all represent significant growth opportunities within niche alternative energy sectors for both large and small cap companies.

Clearly this research indicates high demand keeping the price of oil and other fossil fuels at a premium. It is also becoming a key driver in the global shift towards increasingly cost competitive alternative energy sources. The combination of increasing global energy demands, coupled with declining peak oil supplies, and emerging industrialized pressures will continue to force prices higher and, in turn, continue to accelerate the development of cost competitive alternative energy sources. As many of the traditional large cap energy companies invest heavily in emerging clean technologies working in partnership with innovative smaller, thinly traded companies; inevitably we will see volatility as the industry shakes out over the next years representing superior growth potential worldwide.

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