It’s never been hard to find a small group of Cassandras, so-called “doomers” who see the apocalypse foreshadowed in Mayan calendars, Nostradamus writings, and the Terminator movies. And the last year has given them some glimmer of hope.
Next to them are more reasonable dystopians or collapsitarians: back-to-the-land agricultural types against industrial farming; those who believe in peak oil and the crippling shocks that’ll someday arrive in our oil-dependent society. (This is to say little of the peak carbon, peak fish, peak dirt, and, most recently, peak dollars crowds).
Since the collapse of the economy last year, there’s been a new category of dystopians: financial professionals. Far from fringe elements, they’re economists, hedge fund managers, and urban planners. They see the signs of collapse everywhere: major failures such as General Motors (GMGMQ) and Lehman Brothers; unprecedented intervention by the government and Federal Reserve; taxpayers on the hook for trillions; double-digit unemployment; a bankrupt Iceland; etc.
The list goes on. And taken together, they would’ve been unimaginable a few years ago. As Nassim Taleb, of Black Swan fame, said in a January New Yorker article titled “The Dystopians,” it would be insane not to see how crazy the world really is.
Signs of recovery aside, their long-term argument is simple: The United States is bankrupt. As such, civil unrest -- a result of higher taxes or more bailouts or greater unemployment -- is not far away. Ben Bernanke’s recent claim that the recession is probably over is simply empty rhetoric.
I spoke to several financial professionals who feel this way and have already made precautions for when the you-know-what hits the fan. The following is their doomsday checklist. This is not for the faint of heart or observers of green shoots.
1. Rural Property
This is the most important thing on the list. A small hedge fund manager who recently left downtown Chicago for rural Ohio told me you don’t want to live in a big city once civil unrest starts. The property must be at least one acre, so that it can be put into production for farming and gardening. Those in the peak oil crowd see a return to agrarian ways when crude runs out.
2. Visa for Another Country Obviously this is only for those who can afford such a thing. Several people mentioned they’d either bought or were planning to buy land in New Zealand, Argentina, and Uruguay. Such countries are in vogue for their affordability, open land, easy paths to citizenship, and safe banking system. Uruguay is on its way to being labeled the Switzerland of South America.
3. Houseboat If farmland were out of the question or farming not your thing, a sailboat also works. The boat should be outfitted with solar panels. You can still access the mainland until it’s time to set off. Trading routes for bartering goods can also be considered for those who live on the coasts. If the seas rise in the next few decades, rich coastal property owners will envy your ride.
2. Visa for Another Country
Obviously this is only for those who can afford such a thing. Several people mentioned they’d either bought or were planning to buy land in New Zealand, Argentina, and Uruguay. Such countries are in vogue for their affordability, open land, easy paths to citizenship, and safe banking system. Uruguay is on its way to being labeled the Switzerland of South America.
3. Houseboat
If farmland were out of the question or farming not your thing, a sailboat also works. The boat should be outfitted with solar panels. You can still access the mainland until it’s time to set off. Trading routes for bartering goods can also be considered for those who live on the coasts. If the seas rise in the next few decades, rich coastal property owners will envy your ride.
4. Guns and Ammunition
Not surprisingly, this was the big thing most people mentioned. Choices range from shotguns to handguns to Chinese SKS rifles. One well-known goldbug even has an indoor shooting range in his compound. Along with an arsenal, a high-end security system seems popular.
5. Family
Even if your husband or wife nags you, this is important for obvious reasons. In a society where wealth is no longer defined by money, family and community ties will hold the most wealth. “At the end of the day being a pragmatist,” one hedge fund manager said, “we have to prepare for ourselves and our family.”
6. Water
Basic, but necessary: Look for wells or a creek on the grounds. A way to purify the water is also important.
7. Multiple Ways of Communication
A cell phone or landline is not enough, said several people. Satellite phones are preferred.
8. Propane Tank or Electric Generators
The essentials. Good for cooking, gas, and power backup.
9. Basement
In a house or on a boat, a basement to store supplies and food could be the difference between living pretty and living on Spam.
10. Sun Tzu’s The Art of War
If civil unrest happens, and a return to something of a pre-modern age occurs, the seminal text on military strategy is a must read. Sun Tzu writes about adapting to changing conditions, and this would be the ultimate test of that.