Categories: Peak oil

I've not read the whole report, and I very much doubt the words "peak oil" are in it, but the executive summary of this ExxonMobil projection says that the world's energy needs will increase by 35 percent over 2005 levels by the year 2030. Most of that will be accounted for by India's and China's unslakeable thirst for electric power, says the oil giant, but there will also be more demand for oil. A lot more demand.

In fact, the International Energy Agency figures the world will have two-thirds less oil in 2030 than it does today -- and that it will have to make up the deficit by pulling a rabbit out of a hat. Excerpt:

But the most important question regarding the oil forecast is the alarming view of the IEA that the majority of oil production in 2030 will be coming from "fields yet to be developed or found". [Get it? They're counting on fields we don't even know exist. -- RD]

The IEA goes on to say "sustained investment is needed mainly to combat the decline in output at existing fields, which will drop by almost two-thirds by 2030".

A few years ago and even when forecasts were very much higher, the IEA was always assured of the availability of resources without such lost and found statements.

This has led some commentators to call this "capitulation to peak oil" and the Guardian on November 9 quoted an unidentified employee of the IEA as saying the world is "closer to running out of oil".

However, the IEA does not want to admit this in case it causes panic buying and a severe impact on oil prices and financial markets.

The Americans are always influencing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline and to overplay the chances of finding new oil and it is a "rule" in the IEA not to anger the US. Other unidentified former employees called the 105 mb/d 2030 production as "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".

Fatih Birol, Chief Economist at the IEA, who used to work for Opec secretariat before joining the opposition, said in a recent interview that global oil production would "peak within 10 years and that the governments were "woefully' underprepared for the crisis".

beliefnet.com

Categories: Peak oil