Predictions for Lexington in 2010

1. Lexington will see an increase in refugees from three primary areas and causes:

Mexico – peak oil: The Mexican government is being challenged like never before, both with drug-fueled lawlessness and an absolute free-fall in oil revenues, as their fields have peaked. Lexington has a large and established Mexican community. Expect more friends, relatives and fellow citizens to join them here.

Africa – climate: We have already seen an influx of people from Africa landing in Lexington. As food shortages and prices increase due to both a ravaged climate and peak-caused higher oil prices, we should expect more.

Central United States – globalism: Lexington has fared better than most cities in this part of the country. Our housing stock is in decent shape, we still have a diverse retail mix, and our urban and natural environment isn't devastated. All in all we will look like a good place to ride out the storm. People in this group include college students (kids, young adults, and even middle age folks who cant find work) and people from cities like Wilmington, Ohio, that have been destroyed by globalism.

Nationally, anti-immigrant sentiment will spread rapidly. Although we've been less affected by this fear and loathing, this feeling will become stronger here too. Our community's willingness to integrate and socialize the human beings who end up here will be a major hallmark of our ability to withstand our own personal dislocations and disruptions.

2. Lexington will become more dense. This influx of people — and continuing economic deterioration — will cause Lexington to become more dense. These refugees will not be in the market for new housing of any sort, thus there won't be a need for new development. Rather, we'll see increases in people per unit. More people will squeeze into houses and apartments across the city.

This increase in density could be a good sign for LexTran. Many of the refugees who land here will come without a car. It will also demand that we become an ever more bike-friendly city. Demand will grow for community gathering spots — real places accessible without a car. This trend will also present more opportunities for small-scale local businesses to serve these new people.

3. Unemployment in Lexington will hit a new peak. More people plus fewer jobs equals higher unemployment. The percentage of unemployed and underemployed in Lexington now is at least 13 percent, which is higher than any time since the 1930s — basically one out of seven people in Lexington. The most alarming downturn in jobs? Retail trade, which has been our major source of employment gains over the last decade.

Declines in employment and wages will continue to severely stress local government. Our city's funding is nearly entirely based on payroll taxes.

Employment declines will force wages down for those who remain employed. This will combine with an increase in inflation due to reckless federal spending and an increase in costs due to higher commodity prices. Taxes at all levels can be counted on to rise. Bottom line: less money in our pockets, at the exact same time that gas and everything related to it — like food — will get more expensive. 

All these forces will stretch our community's ability to provide a social safety net. I predict an increased sense of personal social responsibility will grow among a small but vital portion of the city. 

4. Survivalism will become a real topic. An equal counterpoint to personal social responsibility will be the "every man for himself" mentality. And not just in rural areas. Suburban anger and fear will go mainstream and suburban neighborhoods will become ever more loaded with guns and dried food. In a place like Lexington, which is comprised nearly exclusively of suburbs, this is a real problem. As we have seen, Lexington is becoming more diverse than ever and the suburbs are where it's happening. This isn't an inner city vs. suburbs vs. rural divide scenario — this is true discord in our midst.

5. No new private development in downtown Lexington. The fate of downtown engages so many people and compels them to spend huge amounts of intellectual and emotional energy on it. Yet beyond the completion of the fine streetscape project and the improvement of Cheapside, no private development will occur in downtown in 2010. This is due to a perfect storm of reasons: lack of credit for both developers and buyers, high land prices translating into high rents and sales prices, higher commodity prices, lack of potential residential buyers in the young professional and empty nester demographics, and a general decline in retail activity nationally.

The main cause for concern for downtown will be the suburbanization of the urban core. The community must be alert to arguments that offer "something is better than nothing." Single story, single use buildings surrounded by parking lots will kill whatever energy is left downtown.

6. Lexington will begin to truly value the next generation. Lexington has always had what is now called the creative class. In 2010, the city will benefit from their ideas, passions and energy more than ever. Fears of brain drain will be eased as our best and brightest stay here, in known, safe surroundings, and we draw bright people in from around the world. This is the beginning of a talent and leadership revolution in "ole" Lexington. A good beginning: the Creative Cities Summit to be held here in April and fostered by the leadership of Anthony Wright of the Mayor's Office of Economic Development and Phil Holoubek, among many others.

7. 2010 will mark the beginning of the "local" era of Lexington. Local food and business will move even more to the forefront of community consciousness. Whether due to health concerns or a devotion to social and environmental justice, or just simply because it is the right thing to do economically, more and more Lexingtonians will eat and live local. Cheap stuff brought from half a world away will be disdained even more. The new local era will open up myriad micro-business opportunities — ways to make a meaningful living here while at the same time helping our city become an even better place.

8. Grass roots are growing. City government is likely to be even less of a leader in 2010 than it has been in 2009, through no fault of the fine people who run it. Entitlement spending and debt service eat up most of the budget, leaving little room for discretionary projects and funding support for programs. Falling payroll tax receipts will decrease funding availability even more. The next generation is already taking charge, not waiting to be told, or asked. Witness the great things that SeedLeaf is doing to reintroduce agriculture to our lives, and Debra Hensley's "social stimulus," a fun way to gather people to share ideas and fellowship, or Kid's Café at the East Seventh Street Center, among many others. 

9. The "North Side Renaissance" will continue. The renaissance north of Main Street, and in the East End particularly, will continue to reflect the rise of the new Lexington — a place where race, birth, wealth, origin and class don't matter as much as humanity and possibility. For far too long, Lexington viewed itself by what happened south of Main Street. Now we are becoming a more balanced city, for everyone's benefit. Local businesses, creative caring people and investments of sweat, as much as capital, are changing the area into what almost seems like a quaint small town. Limestone is now becoming the true main street of this town, a street that connects, unlike the old Main Street, which was one that divided.

10. In 2010, we will gain a head start on the transition that is beginning to occur worldwide. Lexington has a lot going for it as we enter a new world. Fifty-one years ago, city leaders had the foresight to create the urban service boundary as a way to protect our beautiful countryside. Because of this, the Thoroughbred industry flourished. But even if that industry falters — which is likely with peak oil — we still have a huge swath of protected land, some of the best agricultural soils in the world, with which we can feed ourselves. I cannot overstate the importance this will have to us over the coming years! (We did hurt ourselves by sacrificing our ability to control our own water supply; let us hope that this is not a fatal mistake.)

Because of the urban service boundary, we have a very compact city for our size. Most of the neighborhoods in the city are accessible by bike within a 30-minute ride. Very few other cities can say that. This compactness will make it easier to manage our waste, provide basic services and keep essential infrastructure as well maintained as possible. And it will also make local businesses, services and food distribution much more efficient. 

We have many rooted institutions that will give us a sense of stability over the coming years. We are well educated. We are personally healthier than most places. Our city hasn't been as divided by race and class as many others. It hasn't been perfect, especially for those among us who have been invisible or even expendable to the rulers, but we don't have scores of square miles of burnt out and abandoned land like many, many cities.

Of course in 2010, the World Equestrian Games will come and go, and I think Lexington will be well received. We will gain at least our Legacy Projects out of it: the Legacy Trail and the revitalization of the East End, including the Lyric Theatre and the Isaac Murphy Memorial Art Garden. So yeah for us!

So there you have it. Ten predictions. You've noticed that I stayed away from national and international predictions. You can get those in detail elsewhere, but I'll summarize. A bubble is again growing on Wall Street as interest-free money is invested in an attempt to get the last few crumbs off the table. Once interest rates increase, the market will again drop precipitously, perhaps as early as summer 2010. All hopes for a sustained "recovery" will die with this last bubble. 

Oil prices will rise with the market, and when it bursts, so will demand in the United States, which will drive prices down some. But expansion of industrial growth in China and India will combine to send prices back up. This will add costs to everything we do, and eat, here, making us poorer even as our wages decline and our taxes increase. Peak oil will be finally acknowledged by those in power in the United States.

Israel will very likely launch a strike on Iran. This has far more important consequences to world stability than do our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. All bets are off if this happens.

The climate has changed already, and it is unlikely that humans will do anything to stop further changes. Adaptation will become ever more urgent, as will dealing with climate refugees, even in the United States. Interior cities in the United States need growth plans to deal with an influx of people escaping rising sea levels, strong storms and droughts.

2010 will become our "reality" year, a year when it finally dawns on us that we cannot go on as we have. As I've said, we here in Lexington have a lot of advantages in facing the new world. Let us not squander them trying to retain the old one.

Republished with the permission of the author from his blog, Bluegrass reVISIONS, (steveaustinlex.wordpress.com). The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Business Lexington.

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