On Earth Day 2010, evening newscasts trumpeted a perky, upbeat story about a Pentagon project to power warplanes with a mixture of biofuel (derived from a type of mustard plant) and conventional jet fuel. It's all about breaking dependence on foreign oil and being "green."
The context, as with so many stories from our media, remained obscure.
Leaving aside the question about how "green" war can be, the context is peak oil, an open secret for decades that has yet to be acknowledged at top levels of government. It is, however, on the minds of Pentagon planners. The U.S. military deals in reality, mostly, without consulting the political winds in advance, which is as it should be. It consumes a great deal of petroleum product -- 320,000 barrels of oil per day In 2006. Only three countries on Earth consume more oil per capita than the Department of Defense. War is an expensive and wasteful business.
What's the local issue?
The backside of Hubbert's peak oil curve is being felt in the poorest countries already. Without dollars to purchase oil, they do without. As the crisis deepens, its impact on our region will be increasingly felt. A list of adverse events is projected to follow a declining supply of oil in the United States -- notorious for consuming 26 percent of the world's supply with 5 percent of its population.
At risk is a global economy that depends on constant growth. With declining resources, many things will happen, but growth and expansion are not among them.
Societies that can meet their needs using their own resources and by their own efforts will adjust. Those that cannot, won't. Small cities like Salisbury, surrounded by rich and productive farmland with enough light industry to meet the area's needs, have advantages that could make our future survivable.
The growth of community supported agriculture and local food movements are bright spots. More people are aware of the dangers of peak oil for an unprepared nation, but unfortunately, most people see it as a gas-price issue, not a threat to our food supply.
We have been bumping along the top of an oil consumption curve blunted by a worldwide recession, which has disguised the fact most major oil fields in the world are in sharp decline.
Local preparedness and response are crucial, but first we must recognize and face the danger. At present we are running toward a cliff with our eyes closed.