What’s surprising is more of those deserting Calgary’s prairie drab aren’t stampeding here. For once, Alberta licence plates are few and far between.

A net loss of 4,154 souls over the course of a year may not seem like a lot. But by putting the “former” in the term boomtown at the cusp of an economic watershed, it might not be just any dip.

Could it be a harbinger of things to come in an era of peak oil, environmental constraints and — most important in the short term — abundant natural gas and its resulting languishing value?

In a sense, Alberta reached its peak oil moment years ago with the decline of conventional oil reserves followed by the demise of its natural gas sector. When previous booms went bust, the expectation of the good times cycling back was always fulfilled — a resiliency no longer guaranteed.

Given its dependence on the oilsands, Calgary’s one-horse standing’s been whittled down to a pair of hooves and the pony they’re under has become an international pariah.

With every week, it seems the industry’s credibility springs a fresh leak, doing its foes’ work for them.

The bottom-line bad news for the city is its esthetic charms aren’t enough to make up for the inevitable fiscal shortcomings.

To many who’ve come and left, Calgary’s the office — a place of work and soul-less suburbia where bulldozed heritage buildings stand and fall as cultural metaphors.

If the dining scene has evolved to standards set partly by the city’s affluence, the arts and cultural scene hasn’t kept pace.

The mountain views are splendid, but they’re not enough and the same can be said for chinooks.

Too few people find Calgary’s attractions merit the high cost of living.

The absurd price of parking pretends Calgary’s downtown enjoys the rarefied airs of a Manhattan or London.

As it did twice in the ’80s and in the ’90s, the city again finds itself at the mercy of black gold volatility.

Given those predictable hazards, it’s astonishing to see a City of Calgary population forecast from five years ago predicting the metro area’s population would reach 1,328,000 in 2010 — a good 150,000 off the mark.

It fails to account for the limited success Alberta has enjoyed in economic diversification.

There’s no better gauge of that than the provincial budget, whose most fruitful source of diversification has been gambling.

In a report released this month, the Western Centre for Economic Research found from 1976-2007, employment in agriculture and manufacturing contracted, with much of the diversification occurring in the mostly lower-paying service sector.

“Most of the recent employment growth has been due to an increasing share in the mining and oil and gas sector,” states the University of Alberta think-tank, referring to oilsands mining.

And since the report’s 2007 end point, Alberta’s led the way in shedding jobs — many due to the retreating petroleum sector.

If it wasn’t such a dry and intractable topic, diversification would be a major issue in the next provincial election.

One approach many voters may instinctively recoil from is one put forth recently by the Canada West Foundation’s Robert Roach, who suggests western provinces pool funds managed by an arms-length private firm that would finance commercial ventures and start-ups.

Government — particularly in Alberta — may have no choice but to be in the business of being in business.

Otherwise, the Calgarians who haven’t fled for warmer, lusher greenback pastures may find themselves without traffic jams and permanent construction zones.

bill.kaufmann@sunmedia.ca

www.calgarysun.com