By Siyabonga Ntshingila

Scientists have estimated that South Africa is soon to reach its peak coal production.

Jeremy Wakeford, the chairman of the association for the Study of Peak Oil (Aspo) said :” It is commonly believed that South Africa has abundant coal reserves which will last 200 years or more. But recent research three scientific journals suggests that usable reserves are much smaller than previously thought, and that annual production could reach a peak and begin to decline within a decade -- or might even have peaked already”.

A study by geologist Chris Hartnady soon to be published in the SA Journal of Science, estimates that South Africa will reach peak coal production in 2020 when around 285 million tonnes will be produced. Last year 242 million tonnes were produced with over half being used by Eskom and the export market and Sasol sharing the rest.

Eskom has already started complaining of the poor grade of coal it is receiving this year. It is in the middle of arbitration with a supplier over plans to cancel the contract to quality issues. The utility has warned that having to pay higher prices for better quality coal will lead to higher power costs for consumers.

Wakeford warned that the country’s dependence on what was a depleting resource would have negative ramifications going forward. He advised that :” We should not wait until coal becomes too expensive or scarce, but invest now in renewable energy infrastructure and industries”.