U.S. demand for gasoline should fall for good after '06 peak
26-12-2010
Shell gas station attendant Toke Fusi pumps gas for a customer in Menlo Park, Calif., in 2009.
In an interesting twist on conventional wisdom, Associated Press energy writer Jonathan Fahey reports today that America's demand for gasoline has declined four years in a row and will not reach the 2006 level again, even when the economy fully recovers.
Further, Fahey quotes one energy expert as predicting that by 2030, America will use just 5.4 million barrels a day, the same as in 1969.
The reason:
- Higher fuel economy standards for U.S. cars, beginning with the 2012 model.
- A steady dropoff in commuting distances plus less driving from aging baby boomers.
- The shift toward more cars running partially or entirely on electricity.
- Higher gasoline prices as developing countries in Asia and the Middle East begin to use more oil.
- The increased use of biofuels in gasoline.
- A shift from SUVs beginning in 2004 that has saved America $15 billion on gasoline this year.
Fahey notes that America will continue to burn more gasoline than any other country, both in total and per capita for decades to come. He also cautions that if the U.S. economy booms and global oil prices fall, demand for gasoline could rise.
Still, Fahey quotes Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, as saying that combination of demographic change and policy change "means the heady days of gasoline growing in the U.S. are over."
(Posted by Doug Stanglin)
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