The story on the price of gas in The Free Press (March 8) mentioned a number of causes of rising gasoline prices. One that was not mentioned was global crude oil depletion.  

Global production of crude oil (annual) has been on a basically flat plateau since late in 2004 even though oil prices have been at historic highs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in their 2010 report to the western industrial nations that supply its funding stated that they believe that global peak crude oil production was reached in 2006.

The figures from the U.S. government Energy Information Agency (EIA) show global peak oil being reached in 2005. Just as the continental U.S. reached peak oil in 1970 and has had declining production since then (from 10 million barrels per day in 1970 to about 3 million barrels per day in 2010), we can expect that the world will begin seeing declining crude oil production.   

Both a U.S. military think tank and a German military think tank have each concluded that we will fall off the current global crude oil production plateau in 2011 or 2012 and that there may be serious societal repercussions from the declining global crude oil production. The German military think tank calculated we could see as much as 10 million barrels per day decline by 2015 (just four years away now).

The complete list of oil fields and countries that are currently in decline would be way too long to include in this column. But just a few for demonstration: Canada’s crude oil production is in decline, with exports only being supported at current levels with tar sands synthetic crude oil (Canada is the number one U.S. foreign supplier); Cantarell field in Mexico — second largest in the world — is in double digit decline and Mexico is on track to become net oil importer in five to seven years (Mexico is the number two U.S. foreign oil supplier); and Venezuela’s oil production is in decline, mostly due to political mismanagement (Venezuela is the number three U.S. foreign oil supplier).

 Saudi Arabia net oil exports have been declining for about three years due to increasing internal consumption (Saudi Arabia is the number four U.S. foreign oil supplier). Nigerian oil production is declining due to internal strife (Nigeria is the number five foreign oil supplier).

 So we are having to scramble to find additional suppliers and then bid the price up to get it away from others who want the oil. The Alaska oil fields peaked more than 10 years ago and production is approaching the Alaska Oil Pipeline MOL (Minimum Operating Level), and when the pipeline shuts down the rest of the oil up there (including the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge) will have to be brought out by ship during the few months a year when the ice is out (no more steady supplies).

 The great North Sea oil fields, which made England an exporter of oil and gas, peaked decades before anyone thought they would and England is now a growing importer of both crude oil and natural gas.  

I think we can expect the price of oil and gasoline to be very unstable from here on out. The price will go up when demand exceeds production and then high prices will force demand back down. As production continues to decline and goes below demand, prices will rise to force demand back below production again. It will be a very bumpy ride down the depletion side of The Oil Age.

And to make the problem even worse, we have ELM (Export Land Model), which describes the effects of internal consumption and production declines in oil producing and exporting countries. This was developed by Jeffrey Brown, an oil geologist from Texas, in collaboration with Sam Foucher, a physicist. For a detailed reading of this study, Google: Jeffrey Brown + ELM.

Are you starting to see the big picture? Completion of the global decline in crude oil production is estimated to take about 70 years, so children alive today will see the end of “The Oil Age.” By that time there will only be enough oil being produced to, metaphorically speaking, grease the axles on your ox cart.

What do you think our city, county, state and federal governments should be doing to try to mitigate the problems that will be caused by the terminal decline in global crude oil production (and natural gas) for us, our children and grandchildren? Think about it!

Recommended reading: Hubbert’s Peak — The Impending World Oil Shortage by Kenneth Deffeyes; Beyond Oil — The View from Hubbert’s Peak by Kenneth Deffeyes; Twilight in the Desert by the late Matthew Simmons. Available from your local library or bookstore.

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