EnergyInsights.net 
China March oil demand up 11 pct on year, but off peak 25-04-2011 6:21 pm

* March implied oil demand 9.16 mln barrels/day

* Implied oil demand down around 4 pct from Feb

* Crude runs up 8 pct on year, down 3.4 pct on month (Adds graphic link, macro background)

By Judy Hua and Chen Aizhu

BEIJING, April 15 (Reuters) - China's implied oil demand grew by double digits for the sixth consecutive month in March, but was down from February as refineries scaled back runs on maintenance and soaring crude costs.

A jump in inflation to a 32-month high and strong first quarter growth reported on Friday underline how China's booming economy is pushing oil use.

But it also highlights one of the major risks to demand in the world's second largest oil consumer -- that the government will continue to apply the brakes to slow expansion.

At the current pace China, which has driven global oil demand growth for the past decade, is ahead of the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast for it to account for 40 percent of increased global crude use of 1.4 million bpd in 2011.

"Sales of oil products are robust as China is entering its peak oil consuming season," said Dai Jiaquan, a senior oil market researcher with CNPC, parent of PetroChina .

"Spring ploughing has started from the south to the north of the country and construction of infrastructure projects has almost all started, which will lead to a jump of fuel consumption in the second quarter from the first quarter."

Implied demand increased 11 percent from a year earlier to 9.16 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, Reuters calculations based on preliminary government data showed on Friday, down 4 percent from the second-highest ever level of 9.53 million bpd posted in February.

The figures do not include changes in inventories, which China does not publish.

China's implied demand, a combination of crude throughput and net imports of refined oil products, is expected to keep growing even after Brent crude prices LCOc1 soared to a 32-month high above $127 a barrel this week.

The government increased retail gasoline and diesel prices by 5-5.5 percent to record highs from April 7, effectively insulating consumers from some of the impact of the around one-fifth rise in global crude prices since a previous retail fuel price hike. [ID:nSGE736009]

"What could lead to a significant slowdown in oil demand is a hard landing of the economy, but the overall picture is good for now," said Wang Aochao, head of research at UOB in Shanghai.

LOW CRUDE RUNS

Analysts say the government's tightening policy may have a bigger impact on China's oil demand than crude prices.

"If the government's tightening policy continues and eventually hits investment, it will have a substantial impact on oil demand," CNPC's Dai said.

Official data showed on Friday that economic growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, was still sizzling, little hindered by the central bank's half-year tightening campaign that many investors had feared would undermine growth. [ID:nL3E7FF0AC]

China's gross domestic product increased by 9.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, ahead of an expected 9.5 percent pace, while consumer price inflation at 5.4 percent in the year to March was the fastest since July 2008.

Chinese refiners processed 8.87 million bpd of crude in March, up 8 percent from a year earlier but down from a record 9.18 million bpd hit in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

The March throughput level was about 3.4 percent below the February peak, as refineries entered planned maintenance and as soaring crude costs started to pinch processing margins.

In the first quarter of the year crude runs rose 10.2 percent year on year to 9.04 million bpd, it said.

The data came largely in line with a Reuters poll that found China's leading refineries would cut their crude oil throughput in March to the lowest daily volume in a year. [ID:nL3E7E30JT]

These refineries were expected to raise throughput in April moderately after major maintenance and a fuel price hike eases their cost burdens. [ID:nL3E7F71WL]

Crude oil production in China rose 4.2 percent from a year earlier to 4.14 million bpd in March and gained 6.7 percent on year to 4.17 million bpd in the first quarter of this year, the statistics bureau data showed.

China, the world's second largest crude importer after the United States, brought in about 5.1 million bpd of crude oil in March, up 3 percent from a year earlier. (Editing by Michael Urquhart)

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