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Natural gas production in the lower 48 United States increased by 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the month of July versus June, according to Bentek Energy®, an analytics and forecasting unit of Platts. Production averaged 68.5 billion Bcf/d last month, marking the highest monthly average on record and surpassing the previous record set in June. On July 30, production set a one-day record high of 69.3 Bcf/d.
On a year-over-year basis, average July 2014 gas production was up 5.1% from July 2013 or 3.3 Bcf/d higher.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its domestic production estimates for July on or around September 30.
“The U.S. has moved past 68 Bcf/d and we’re now talking about what day production will surpass 70 Bcf/d,” said Jack Weixel, Bentek director of energy analysis. “While our official forecast doesn’t predict average monthly production to exceed 70 Bcf/d until April 2015, the reality is that we’ll likely hit 70 Bcf/d on several days in the month of September. The 70 Bcf/d level is a big mental hurdle for the market, to think about that volume of natural gas being available every day will calm most fears about insufficient storage levels going into winter.”
Bentek data analysis suggests 2014 production will average approximately 67.7 Bcf/d on the back of a higher price environment for producers, continued growth in liquids-rich shale basins such as the Eagle Ford, Bakken, Permian and Greater Anadarko, as well as continued increases in dry gas production in the Marcellus.
The Bentek data analysis is based on an extensive sample of near real-time production receipt data from the U.S. lower 48 interstate pipeline system. Platts’ Bentek production models are highly correlated with and provide an advance glimpse of federal government statistics from the U.S. EIA.
This Bentek Energy U.S. natural gas production data estimate will be published early each month, covering the previous month’s output activity. Bentek’s dry gas production estimates are not observed data and are based on pipeline receipt nominations and certain state production data.