EnergyInsights.net 
US oil production surge to break Saudi Arabia's grip on world energy 07-11-2014 7:36 pm

 

Citibank report claims that rising US production over the next decade will erode the role of Saudi Arabia and Opec in supplying the world's largest energy consumer

Will the US shale boom put Opec out of business? Photo: AP

According to the bank the development of shale oil resources in the US and the opening of new fields in the Arctic could see the country pumping 14.2m barrels per day (bpd) by 2020, up from 7.5m bpd in 2013.

That would give the US capacity to export 4.7m bpd of oil and natural gas liquid (NGL) by the end of the decade and eliminate the need for around 2m bpd that the world's largest economy currently imports.

The report comes as Saudi Arabia - the world's largest oil exporter - appears willing to allow oil prices to fall in a bid to win back market share in the US where the profitability of drilling comes under pressure with prices below $80 per barrel.

Brent crude - a blend of oil used to benchmark about half the world's petroleum - is currently trading down 27pc over the last year amid concerns over global oversupply and uncertainty over the future production policies of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

The group of 12 mainly Middle East petro states led by Saudi Arabia controls about a third of world supply.

"The consequences for Opec are severe and growing. Most Opec countries produce medium to heavy and sour crude oil streams and the refinery system in the US Gulf of Mexico has been the most attractive market in the world for them.

But now the loss of market share has become inevitable, increasing competition for access to China’s more limited market and weighing on global oil prices," said Citi in the 87-page report.

"As the unconventional oil and gas revolution spreads globally Opec’s pricing power will erode even further. In natural gas markets, also as outlined in this report, a similar result will ensue as natural gas’s price link to oil is likely to come to an end.

One other country, whose domestic market is opaque, China, is also likely to benefit significantly as its power of the purse will be used to lock in supplies from oil and gas producers at the losing end of the balance," said Citi.

Despite concern the current downturn in prices will shutdown large parts of US shale production Citibank argues that rigs will only stop drilling should prices fall below a level of $70 per barrel. However, a lower price environment could also add pressure on the US government to lift its crude export ban which has been in place since the shocks of the 1970s when it was imposed to safeguard energy security.

"If the period ahead is to see lower oil prices, there will be increasing pressures, and an increased national interest, in allowing exports of larger volumes of condensate and even of light tight oil," said Citi in the report.

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