Iranian oil will soon hit the global market, thanks to sanctions being lifted as part of the historic deal reached yesterday to regulate the country’s nuclear program.

Some are suggesting that this will flood global markets with oil at a time when prices are already incredibly low (thanks, in part, to high production from the US and Saudi Arabia). So, should you go out and buy a gas-guzzler and scrap your plans to save up for an electric car?

Uh, no. To the extent that an increase in Iranian oil production will have an effect on the global price of gas, it will be slight and delayed.

“Most of what is assumed can be delivered [from Iran] has already been priced into the market,” says Sarah Ladislaw, director of the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. “We really don’t know how quickly they can ramp up investment and what the state of their fields looks like.”

According to projections from three energy monitoring agencies, the global demand for crude oil amounts to 30 million barrels a day. Iran wants to double exports up to 2.3 million barrels per day, a far cry from the 6 million barrels per day it was making in the ’70s, before the 1979 revolution. The country’s oil minister says it can increase exports by 500,000 barrels per day as soon as sanctions are officially lifted (expected late this year), with another 500,000 per day added over the next six months.

But it’s questionable how much oil the country’s export infrastructure can handle without significant investment—everything from tankers, pipelines and the wells themselves can affect total production. And most of that investment will need to come from western oil companies. The question remains of how much they will want to invest in Iranian production, and when they’ll be able to.

“Investors are very cautious,” says Ladislaw. “They’ll look at how the agreement is being implemented and if things are going well. They need some sense of whether or not their investment could be put at risk.”

Even members of OPEC appear to disagree about what the impact of Iranian oil will be. An emergency meeting may be held to discuss the fallout from increased Iranian production.

The global oil market is incredibly complicated, with enough moving parts to fill a supertanker. The potential for increased production from Iran isn’t enough to spike or crash gas prices. It’s just all way too complicated for that.

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